Polymarket | The World's Largest Prediction Market

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance

28%

Gavin Newsom

14%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

10%

Pete Buttigieg

Marco Rubio

Andy Beshear

Gretchen Whitmer

Kamala Harris

Josh Shapiro

Donald Trump

Elon Musk

Ron DeSantis

Wes Moore

Tulsi Gabbard

Glenn Youngkin

Donald Trump Jr.

Nikki Haley

JB Pritzker

Vivek Ramaswamy

Tim Walz

Stephen Smith

Greg Abbott

<1%

LeBron James

<1%

$4m Vol.

Fed decision in September?

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

41%

No change

56%

25+ bps increase

$6m Vol.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

16%

chance

$8m Vol.

New York City Mayoral Election

Zohran Mamdani

79%

Eric Adams

Andrew Cuomo

Curtis Sliwa

Jim Walden

Brad Lander

<1%

Zellnor Myrie

<1%

Scott Stringer

<1%

Andrew Yang

<1%

Adrienne Adams

<1%

Rudy Giuliani

<1%

Michael Bloomberg

<1%

$39m Vol.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?

20%

chance

$3m Vol.

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

21%

chance

$130k Vol.

GPT-5 released by…?

July 31

August 15

75%

August 31

85%

December 31

97%

$2m Vol.

Who will Trump pardon in 2025?

Changpeng Zhao

29%

Diddy

17%

Ghislaine Maxwell

16%

Steve Bannon

14%

Roger Ver

14%

Rudy Giuliani

13%

Sam Bankman-Fried

10%

Derek Chauvin

Eric Adams

George Santos

Julian Assange

Matt Gaetz

Bob Menendez

Young Thug

Joe Exotic

Elizabeth Holmes

Himself

Daniel Penny

Do Kwon

Hunter Biden

Roger Stone

Edward Snowden

Elon Musk

Antoine Massey

$892k Vol.

Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?

27%

chance

$154k Vol.

Which countries will the U.S. agree to tariff agreements with before August?

China

11%

India

Canada

Mexico

30%

Australia

Germany

<1%

France

Brazil

Argentina

48%

Israel

$2m Vol.

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025?

42%

chance

$318k Vol.

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

10%

chance

$6m Vol.

Who will be named in newly released Epstein files?

Prince Andrew

44%

Bill Clinton

43%

Alan Dershowitz

36%

Bill Gates

33%

Donald Trump

29%

Stephen Hawking

19%

Kevin Spacey

18%

Hillary Clinton

14%

Michael Jackson

12%

Jay-Z

10%

Henry Kissinger

10%

Oprah Winfrey

Joe Biden

Barack Obama

$114k Vol.

Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31?

20%

chance

$85k Vol.

Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?

27%

chance

$456k Vol.

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

67%

chance

$346k Vol.

Who will leave Trump Administration in 2025?

Pete Hegseth

26%

Dan Bongino

25%

Pam Bondi

18%

Howard Lutnick

17%

Tulsi Gabbard

16%

Scott Bessent

13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

10%

Karoline Leavitt

10%

Marco Rubio

Lee Zeldin

$2m Vol.

World Series Champion 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

29%

New York Yankees

Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets

Detroit Tigers

Milwaukee Brewers

Toronto Blue Jays

Houston Astros

Chicago Cubs

Seattle Mariners

Texas Rangers

San Diego Padres

Boston Red Sox

San Francisco Giants

Tampa Bay Rays

St. Louis Cardinals

Cleveland Guardians

<1%

Minnesota Twins

<1%

Kansas City Royals

<1%

Los Angeles Angels

<1%

Cincinnati Reds

<1%

Baltimore Orioles

<1%

Chicago White Sox

<1%

Athletics

<1%

Atlanta Braves

<1%

Miami Marlins

<1%

Washington Nationals

<1%

Pittsburgh Pirates

<1%

Arizona Diamondbacks

<1%

Colorado Rockies

<1%

$37m Vol.

Bolivia Presidential Election

Samuel Doria Medina

49%

Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga

31%

Andrónico Rodríguez

21%

Manfred Reyes Villa

Eduardo del Castillo

<1%

Luis Arce

<1%

Chi Hyun Chung

<1%

Jaime Dunn

<1%

Rodrigo Paz

<1%

José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín

<1%

Jhonny Fernández

<1%

Antonio Saravia

<1%

Gualberto Cusi Mamani

<1%

Ruth Nina

<1%

Evo Morales

<1%

Carlos Mesa

<1%

Luis Fernando Camacho

<1%

Branko Marinković

<1%

María Galindo

<1%

Rubén Costas

<1%

Eva Copa

<1%

$6m Vol.

Elon Musk # of tweets July 25 - August 1?

120–134

<1%

135–149

150–164

37%

165–179

43%

180–194

14%

195–209

210–224

225–239

<1%

240–254

<1%

255+

<1%

$6m Vol.

What price will Bitcoin hit in July?

↑ 200k

<1%

↑ 150k

<1%

↑ 140k

<1%

↑ 130k

<1%

↑ 125k

↓ 105k

<1%

↓ 100k

<1%

↓ 95k

<1%

↓ 90k

<1%

↓ 60k

<1%

$30m Vol.

What price will Ethereum hit in July?

4500

<1%

4200

4000

19%

2200

<1%

2100

<1%

1900

<1%

1700

<1%

1000

<1%

$15m Vol.

Super Bowl Champion 2026

Philadelphia

13%

Buffalo

12%

Baltimore

11%

Kansas City

11%

Detroit

Washington

Los Angeles R

San Francisco

Green Bay

Cincinnati

Minnesota

Los Angeles C

Denver

Tampa Bay

Chicago

Atlanta

Houston

Pittsburgh

Arizona

Jacksonville

New England

New York G

Cleveland

Dallas

Las Vegas

Miami

New Orleans

New York J

Seattle

Carolina

Indianapolis

Tennessee

$20m Vol.

Megaquake before August?

100%

chance

$887k Vol.

League of Legends: DRX vs. Dplus KIA

<1%

DRX

$426k Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom

20%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

16%

Pete Buttigieg

12%

Andy Beshear

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Gretchen Whitmer

Wes Moore

Jon Ossoff

Stephen A. Smith

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

Mark Cuban

J.B. Pritzker

Raphael Warnock

Corey Booker

Michelle Obama

Rahm Emanuel

Tim Walz

Roy Cooper

Mark Kelly

Zohran Mamdani

John Fetterman

Barack Obama

Hillary Clinton

Gina Raimondo

Jon Stewart

Bernie Sanders

LeBron James

<1%

Jared Polis

<1%

Phil Murphy

<1%

Hunter Biden

<1%

Beto O’Rourke

<1%

Liz Cheney

<1%

George Clooney

<1%

Chelsea Clinton

<1%

Oprah Winfrey

<1%

MrBeast

<1%

Andrew Yang

<1%

$4m Vol.

F1 Drivers Champion

Oscar Piastri

64%

Lando Norris

34%

Max Verstappen

Charles Leclerc

<1%

George Russell

<1%

Liam Lawson

<1%

Lewis Hamilton

<1%

Andrea Kimi Antonelli

<1%

Fernando Alonso

<1%

Pierre Gasly

<1%

Esteban Ocon

<1%

Alexander Albon

<1%

Lance Stroll

<1%

Jack Doohan

<1%

Oliver Bearman

<1%

Yuki Tsunoda

<1%

Isack Hadjar

<1%

Carlos Sainz Jr.

<1%

Nico Hülkenberg

<1%

Gabriel Bortoleto

<1%

$79m Vol.

Norway Parliamentary Election Winner

86%

FrP

14%

<1%

MDG

<1%

KrF

<1%

$3m Vol.

Xi Jinping out before October?

chance

$2m Vol.

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2025?

$1,000,000

$250,000

$200,000

15%

$150,000

46%

$130,000

77%

$70,000

14%

$50,000

$20,000

$19m Vol.

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31?

<1%

chance

$2m Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance

55%

Marco Rubio

12%

Donald Trump

Donald Trump Jr.

Tucker Carlson

Ron DeSantis

Glenn Youngkin

Tulsi Gabbard

Vivek Ramaswamy

Nikki Haley

Brian Kemp

Ted Cruz

Greg Abbott

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Josh Hawley

Byron Donalds

Elise Stefanik

Rand Paul

Matt Gaetz

Katie Britt

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Elon Musk

<1%

Kristi Noem

<1%

John Thune

<1%

Mike Pence

<1%

Ivanka Trump

<1%

Tom Brady

<1%

$3m Vol.

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