28%
14%
7%
6%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
<1%
<1%
$4m Vol.
$6m Vol.
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
16%
chance
$8m Vol.
79%
8%
8%
2%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
$39m Vol.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?
20%
chance
$3m Vol.
$130k Vol.
$2m Vol.
29%
17%
14%
14%
13%
8%
7%
7%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
3%
2%
$892k Vol.
$154k Vol.
$318k Vol.
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
10%
chance
$6m Vol.
44%
43%
36%
33%
29%
19%
18%
14%
12%
10%
10%
9%
7%
$114k Vol.
$85k Vol.
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?
27%
chance
$456k Vol.
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
67%
chance
$346k Vol.
26%
25%
18%
17%
16%
13%
10%
8%
6%
$2m Vol.
6%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
$37m Vol.
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
$6m Vol.
13%
12%
11%
11%
8%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
$20m Vol.
Megaquake before August?
100%
chance
$887k Vol.
$426k Vol.
20%
12%
9%
6%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
$4m Vol.
64%
34%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
$79m Vol.
Xi Jinping out before October?
4%
chance
$2m Vol.
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31?
<1%
chance
$2m Vol.
55%
12%
4%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
<1%
$3m Vol.